Real estate executives have a message for brokers and buyers as one of the worst house sales years comes to an end: Prepare for January.
At NAR NXT, the largest gathering of the year for the National Association of Realtors, Anthony Lamacchia, the CEO and founder of Lamacchia Realty, told a group of residential real estate professionals, “I think things will take off come the first of the year.”
Lamacchia and Leo Pareja, CEO of eXp Realty, addressed the stage on the second day of the NAR convention at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center to share their predictions for the residential real estate market over the next months.
Their presentation took place during a difficult period for the sector and only days after former President Donald Trump was re-elected to a second, non-consecutive term in the White House. For the second consecutive year, 2024 is predicted to be the slowest year for the sale of existing homes in the US.
To put it another way, this year has been slow for agents, sellers, and buyers alike.
Numerous disruptive issues, such as high interest and mortgage rates, rising property prices, a shortage of supply, and the unpredictability surrounding the presidential election, are blamed for the industry’s performance lagging.
“2024 has been a very difficult year on many fronts,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun asserted in a conference address. “After a terrible 2023, we did not see a recovery in home sales this year.”
But anticipate changes in the market after the election, Lamacchia warned.
There may be a slight slowdown in the near future, particularly in markets in more blue states where customers are “holding back” and dissatisfied with the outcomes, he said. However, that would soon alter.
“At this moment, I am calling a bottom,” he declared. “At the moment, the sales cycle is at its lowest point.”
According to Lamacchia, the upswing from that bottom will begin to take shape by the beginning of 2025.
He informed the crowd that “every January following a presidential election, things take off like a jet.” “Things are going to get really busy, so whether you are happy or disappointed about the election, you should be prepared to jump in.”
Prior to Lamacchia and Pareja’s presentation, Yun of NAR predicted that, in comparison to this year, sales of new homes would rise by 11% and sales of existing homes by 9% in 2025. In a similar vein, Pareja told the audience on Saturday that he expects sales to rise by 10%.
“The good news is, I do agree that we’ve probably bottomed out,” Pareja stated. “This is good news for our industry.”
Pareja and Lamacchia believe that the increase in housing sales will ultimately be driven by factors other than a post-election boom. There is “pent-up demand,” Lamacchia said, adding that “it’s a numbers game” following two years of historically weak activity.
